Monday, August 8, 2011

What Are The Odds???( For you Actuaries and Stat Freaks)

Ok, so I go out to eat with my lady on Friday evening to a wonderful Sushi place in Brooklyn. We are having a great time, enjoying our meal, when lo and behold, a former high school classmate of mine("Lady Of My Dreams" NOT!!!) shows up with some other people. It just so happens to be the one classmate that I really don't get along with.(Long Story, unrelated to the story I'm trying to tell). Anyway, I sat there and thought, "Gee, what are the odds of this?"
I do have a mind that thinks a lot about numbers and odds and stats and I will try to come up with a number. This is totally arbitrary, but I would assume that to figure this out, I will approximate how likely it is that I would go out to eat on a Friday night. I will pick 50% in my case, so we're at 2/1 odds. Then, how likely she is to go out to eat on a Friday. I'll put that at 50%, so now we're at 4/1. Then there's how many restaurants are in the general vicinity of where each of us live, which coincidentally is Stuyvesant Town for both of us. I will pick ten miles for the range. According to a dining site, there are 14,209 places to eat within a 10-mile radius of the zip code 10009. That makes the odds 56,836/1. Now, if you factor in the time of the evening, which was around 9-10pm, that may be 1/5th of the active dinner eating time on a given night(say 5-10pm), so I will multiply by five and that gives us the total odds of 284,180/1 that both of us would be in the same restaurant at the same time. Yes, I have better things to do, but this was fun! :)

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